One of the bad things about keeping records is you can see just how bad you run. Even I am sick of my own bad beat stories, so they will not be recounted here, don't worry.
Just for kicks I started keeping track of the number of six outs or less hands that were getting there against me starting when I was in Biloxi earlier this month. (I had to do something to keep myself amused). I've been keeping track of that number in any given session of NLHE since then. This obviously assumes the hand goes to showdown.
Anyways, suffice it to say that I am running BAD in May. What do you think the number of times that six outs or less gets there should be in approximately 44 hours of play (assuming about 20 hands/hour, so about 880 hands)? I'm just guessing here, but it probably shouldn't be >20 times (especially considering this is six outs or LESS , not just six out hands). As of tonight in ~880 hands in the month of May I've run into the bad end of six outs or less 23 times.
I've been working on my aggression and I think I've been playing fairly aggressively, so it's not like I'm usually giving people the odds to call with these kinds of hands. Furthermore, a large percentage of these hours are played with people among whom I have a tight table image, so how is this happening?!? AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
For some dumb reason I'm going to AC tomorrow morning. I really hope this stuff stops soon 'cause I can't take it any more.
Rough sketch :
ReplyDeleteSay you play roughly 20% of hands, 2 per orbit full table, which is consistent with tightish play.
Say of those you flop something decent on 20% (decent meaning top pair or better, this is roughly accurate)
Often you won't get any action, or you'll get action from a better hand or drawing hand, so say 20% of the time someone has 6 outs or less (this is pretty much pure guess work, and it probably should be less)
If someone has 6 outs on the flop, they have a 24.1% chance to make their hand by the river. Lets assume the maximum, since I think in this case it's better to overestimate.
So, we have 880*.2*.2*.2*.241 = 1.69
So...yeah, you're running real bad. Hope you return to the mean soon :)