Wednesday, October 31, 2007

And the positive side of variance shows its beautiful face

Cashed out of a Pdoggie's game for ~$1800 (~$1600 profit)...my biggest hit at a 1/2 NLHE game to date.



I had my big hands hold up against multiple outs, hit sets and got paid, and then used my big stack (and tight/running good image) to bully people.  Also, I did make some good calls with middle pair.  For some reason as the night wore on, no one was making me show my cards on the river - almost always folding to a bet...  Wouldn't it be nice if poker was always so easy... 



Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Words of Wisdom

If you ask someone to come in on their day off and then you stand them up, they might be a little mad.  I'm just sayin'.



Monday, October 29, 2007

I Love Apple

Just saw a new commercial for the ipod Touch.  While I plan to hold out for the iphone to be picked up by carriers other than Cingular, I still loved this commercial.  Apple always picks the best songs for their ads.  Just downloaded the song from the ad: Music is My Hot, Hot Sex by CSS.






From all the drugs the one i like more is music

From all the junks the one i need more is music

From all the boys the one I take home is music

From all the ladies, the one I kiss is music

Music is my boyfriend

Music is my girlfriend

Music is my dead end

Music’s my imaginary friend

Music is my brother

Music is my great grand daughter

Music is my sister

Music is my favorite mistress


From all the shit the one I gotta buy is music

From all the jobs the one I choose is music

From all the drinks I get drunk of music

From all the bitches the one I wanna be is music

Music is my beach house

Music is my hometown

Music is my king size bed

Music’s where I meet my friends

Music is my hot hot bath

Music is my hot hot sex

Music is my backrub

My music is where I’d like you to touch



Sunday, October 21, 2007

Lee Jones column in Cardplayer

I just read this Lee Jones' column in the recent Cardplayer (see below).  I don't play in a lot of tournaments, but I think you can see how the kind of situation he describes would be relevant in some cash game situations. 



Also, while the story he relates is about extracting maximum value, I think this concept could also be turned on its head when thinking about bluffs and semi-bluffs.  I see the all-in bluff/semi-bluff frequently- the idea being that if you make a large bet, especially one that puts all your chips at risk, a tighter player might be more convinced to lay down whatever their marginal, but ahead hand is.  I think sometimes a better play is to make a bet that is sizable, but not all-in.  I have used this move a number of times (uh-oh - giving away my secrets now) and it really seems to confuse people and make them more likely to fold their marginal but ahead hands more often than simply moving all in.  Plus, you can limit your losses in case you get a call.  It's one of those situations where the move is advantageous regardless of what your opponents' actions end up being. 



Of course, in order for this to work, you also have to use the same kinds of bets sometimes when you have strong hands, so that opponents (especially those that play with you frequently or who have been playing with you long enough for you to have some kind of table image) will actually believe that you likely have them beat.



Copied from Cardplayer:



A Chip, a Chair, and a Plan



BY: LEE H. JONES



A very nice play


      

      

      

      

      

"One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do"




If you're one of the producers of the European Poker Tour
television shows, please stop reading now; I'm about to make a pretty
startling confession: Watching a typical no-limit hold'em all-in
confrontation is about as interesting as watching a roulette wheel go
around. For example, it has all the appeal of listening to grass grow.
One of your players gets the reds, the other gets the blacks, and the
guy with the pocket pair (instead of the overcards) gets zero and
double zero (green, for the roulette novices). The point is that once
the cards go on their backs and the dealer starts putting out the flop,
turn, and river, the skill is gone. Now it seems that some
poker commentators think that the "pros" (for example, anybody who's
won a bracelet and/or has announced that he/she is a pro poker player)
have some magical ability to make their 48 percent equity a huge
favorite - or at least, the commentary implies, they deserve to.




But you and I know for sure that if Phil Ivey turns up A-Q against
Hillary Duff's 8-8, we're gonna take Hillary and give the points. That
Phil might be the best poker player in the world and Hillary thinks a
club is where you go after the show has nothing to do with it; Hillary is a 5-4 favorite and all of Phil's talent can't fix that.




This is why I'm much more interested in what goes on behind the scenes
of a poker game or tournament. What happens when there are cards to
come and bets to be made - when we separate the men from the boys; or,
in this case, the women from the girls.




I introduce again my friend Jeanne, whom you may recall from a previous
column. I spelled out in grim detail how Jeanne had played pocket
queens "like a little girl" (her phrase, not mine), and ended up
folding the best hand in a monster pot during a sit-and-go. Well, she's
back, but this time she made what I consider to be a world-class play.




Jeanne was in a tournament at the local casino, and they were down to
five players, but she was in pretty deep trouble. Specifically, she was
down to $2,500 and the blinds were $1,200 and $2,400. That is, she had
the big blind plus one lonely $100 chip. She was on the button and
everyone folded to her. Both blinds had plenty of chips. I won't say
what cards she had - the specific hand isn't important - but suffice it
to say, the hand was "playable."




"I call," she said, carefully leaving her one remaining chip capping her cards.




"Are you all in?" asked the small blind (a co-worker of hers).




"If I were all in, I'd have announced that," she replied.




As soon as she described this play to me on the phone, I sat up straight in my chair; this was incredibly good poker thinking.

Why don't you take a minute and see if you can figure out what Jeanne was up to.




You're back? OK …




"I knew that if I went all in, the small blind would probably call, and
no matter what, the big blind would call instantly. He'd be correct to
call without looking at his cards. Then they'd run out five cards and
I'd have to beat them both, since they'd surely check the whole hand
down.




"But by leaving myself that one chip, I forced them to play poker
against each other. If one of them wanted to get me all in, he'd have
to make a full ($2,400) bet. And he might not want to risk that. And if
one of them did bet, I could fold if I was absolutely sure that I was
beat. Furthermore, if one of them bet, suddenly there would be a
significant side pot; if they really got mixed up in it, I could fold
and hope that one of them busted out."




Now this is what makes poker a fascinating game; I'd rather hear one story like this than 100 runner-runner bad-beat tales.




The story even has a happy ending. As it turned out, the small blind
completed the bet and the big blind checked. Jeanne flopped top two
pair. Both blinds checked - and she checked, too! Absolutely! She still
had the problem of both players getting the right price to call with
virtually any two cards. The turn was a blank, and they both checked
again. And again, Jeanne checked. Finally, when they checked on the
river, she put in her last chip, they both called, and her top two pair
was very, very good. And, in fact, she went on to win the tournament
after making a deal for most of the money when heads up.




But the fairy-tale ending to the tournament is no more important here
than whether the roulette wheel comes up red or black (or green) in my
whimsical analogy above. There's nothing that Jeanne (or Phil Ivey, or
Hillary Duff, or you, or I) can do about the cards that come out. But
by using your logical skills, you can ensure that you get as much of
the roulette wheel as possible on your side. Therein lies the key to
winning poker.




Well done, Jeanne - very nice play.


"Two can be as sad as one"



Dinner out and high heels

Just got back from a dinner at Black's.  It's a seafood place in Bethesda and the food was very good.  I had a beet salad, seared tuna, and a pistachio tart with honey ice cream for dessert.  Best yet, the dinner was free.  We are hiring a new Americanist at school and the professors have grad students participate in the process by going out to lunches and dinners with the candidates as well as sitting in on their job talks (the academic version of a job interview). 



Anyways, dinner was very good.  On the way there though, Melissa and I got to talking about how after being in school for a year (as opposed to the working world) we are not as used to walking in heels as we once were.  It was a good reminder to wear the "work clothes" that are in my closet a little more instead of defaulting to school scrubs (jeans/t-shirt/sweatshirt) all the time.



Tuesday, October 16, 2007

A rather surreal moment

So we have a rather complex homework assignment due tomorrow in my Maximum Likelihood Estimation class (mostly matrix algebra and calculus and solving for values with algebra that I have not had in 12 years).  A few of us met to go over the homework and were doing all kinds of crazy equations with greek letters on the board.  Some people walked into the room for their class which was starting in 15 minutes and you could tell they were like: "what the hell are you guys writing?"  I really wanted to tell them that we were all political scientists.  :p



Sunday, October 14, 2007

Horoscope

The typical description on my star sign, Sagittarius, fits me to a tee.  Though I don't know that I really believe in such things (like the daily predictions), the overall picture seems to fit:







While Sagittarians are the nomads of the Zodiac, they do not wander aimlessly.
They are seekers of the truth and will go anywhere and talk to anyone for
answers to their questions. Knowledge and wisdom drive them and provide the
energy for their liberal approach to life. Sagittarians are drawn to the
philosophical and spiritual because these subjects provide answers to the
questions that burn inside them.

Sagittarians are the intellectuals of
the Zodiac. They are lucid thinkers who appreciate others agreeing with their
conclusions. Sometimes they are so confident their deductions are beyond dispute
they become dogmatic and argumentative. Still, the Sagittarian quest for
information drives them to listen to anyone and absorb what they find useful and
quickly disregard the rest.

It is the nature of Sagittarians to roam
freely. If they feel intellectually or physically restricted they may become
bad-tempered very quickly. When Sagittarians are given the freedom they need
they are kind, optimistic, lucky and not afraid of taking an occasional risk.
They are also a charming lot who can be self-indulgent procrastinators. Overall,
Sagittarians allowed the freedom they need are a delight to be
around.

The
Sagitarian In Love:

Sagittarians love any
new form of sexual expression that challenges and excites them. Both tolerant
and eager to please, their honesty can sometimes prove too much for those who
prefer a more mysterious, or veiled approach to love.

Sagittarians are
best involved with a steadier, stronger personality, who can understand their
need for independence, yet still be there after an occasional flair of temper.
Their frank and open motives are often misunderstood, threatening to more
subdued signs.

Although they hate to be tied down, they are willing to
experiment with all manner of relationship styles. As long as their partner is
able to keep up with their wide-ranging interests and is prepared to come up
with new experiments in lovemaking (and certainly does not mind them doing the
same), their relationship will be exciting and reasonably long lasting. Mutual
honesty is the key to success for the Sagittarian.



According to facebook's horoscope application: "The study of unusual subjects appeals to you at this stage in your life, and you
could find that you have a certain amount of genius in some such things."



Hmmm...the study of unusual subjects has appealed to me at pretty much every stage, though the amount of genius is debatable.

 

And the pics just keep on coming

Mircalla and Aaron sent out their pics from the Mircalla and Mike's wedding.  Here are a few.



Reception_103



As close to a P+V (our freshman year floor) reunion as we will likely ever have.  Doug, Mircalla, Vinnie, Sara, and Aaron, with me and Jordan in the background.



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My face is so sweaty this must've been on a dancing break...



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Sara, Aaron, and Doug at the college table



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watching the bride come out of the chapel - with Sara's baby in the corner.



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me and Jeff at the reception. 



Friday, October 12, 2007

Screw you, you stupid donkey!

Bwahahahahaha!
Plusev20070321




Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Vacation 2008

Anyone who knows me knows I love to travel.  Jeff is not so much into the spontaneous thing, but a few years ago I did convince him to go to London with me on a few days notice, so he is working on it.  ;)



School has limited my ability to travel last minute during the off-season (i.e. the time when you can get good deals), and next summer I am probably going to be in Michigan for a large part of the summer  (a month or two) for a summer statistics program, so even my downtime is limited.  On top of that, I'm planning to take my primary field comprehensive exam in August, just before school starts.  We did just decide on what to do for our 2008 summer vacation though - we're going on another cruise!



We're booked right now into a cabin with a balcony (splurge) on Adventure of the Seas, leaving from San Juan, PR (some place I've always wanted to see) and stopping at Aruba, Curacao, St. Maarten, and St. Thomas.  The ship looks awesome and it's a full 7 day cruise.  I'm very excited.  My passport expires in April - must remember to renew it soon.



Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Grad Pub

Melissa, EABS, Maren, myself, and a few others decided to go to the GSA's grad pub last Friday.  Basically it's an excuse for a lot of grad students from different programs to go drink with each other.  Conveniently they hold it on payday.



When we walked in we noticed that it was a huge and total nerdfest.  Not that I am not a nerd also, but it was rather weird seeing so many nerds in such a small space.  EABS noted that the collective brain power in the room was probably enough to solve the world's problems.



Sadly the GVPT-ers (that's us) got outdrunk by the math department (!?!). Next time we will have to get there earlier.  For every drink you get a raffle ticket for things like a free ipod.



The highlight of the night though, was seeing a guy wearing this shirt: _pi_mp that's math/nerd-speak for "pimp" in case you were wondering.  As Billy would say: "nerd, nerd, nerd, nerd."







Life Update

I fully admit to being pretty antisocial the past few weeks.  Every semester there is always one hell week and this one has been it.  We had the midterm in the class I am TA-ing and not only did I have to grade 80+ tests, but we have all had students come to us with concerns.  I have two papers due in one class tomorrow that are cumulatively worth 50% of my grade.  All this on top of my other normal work (MLE homework, reading, reaction papers, etc.).  After this week it will all be downhill - not to say there won't be work, but it will hopefully be more evenly spaced out.



So, if you haven't seen me recently, don't feel like I'm dissing you.  I've been primarily holed up with my laptop and surrounded by political science books.



WBCOOP

Online Poker

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 9579544



Since there have been lingering questions

I beat Jeff in Round 1 of Pops' Heads Up Grudge Match Tourney.  Actually, I moneyed - coming in 4th place and losing to Gypsy Pete (I can't beat a lucksack).  I think my overall play was pretty good.



Also, I decided to play 5/10 dealer's choice at the SHOP last night as stress relief.  A very good time was had by all.  I took a nose dive on a few unfortunate hands early on, but ended up +$200 for the night.  :)



Tuesday, October 2, 2007

wah wah wah

I've been having one of those weeks where I can't win any races and I can't even win when I'm ahead.



I keep getting called by hands that, based on my range in that situation, are either dominated (best case) or looking for 3 outs (worse case).  And they get there!  I should want these calls...but I am starting not to.



Situation reversed, I have 2 overs (6 outs) plus flush outs, and I can't get there to save my life.



Poker is stupid.  Time for a temporary break.