Yesterday in my class we spent some time talking about the Bradley effect. I simply jotted down: "Bradley effect: why I owe Pete $250."
Simply put, the Bradley effect is the premise that a significant number of voters will systematically lie in polls, saying that they plan to vote for a candidate of color, but when they actually go to the polls they vote for the white candidate. There are several instances of polls showing a candidate of color leading by large margins in the polls, only to lose the election. For those familiar with the race and politics literature, this fits in with all the stuff that focuses on how latent racism has generally replaced overt racism, since overt racism is not seen as socially acceptable anymore.
Almost a year ago I made a bet with Pete that Obama would not be the next President of the United States. This was before Obama won any primaries...I banked on Hillary's people running a better campaign and the Bradley effect. And McCain being the McCain of 2000 and not picking Sarah Palin. Ah well.
I think Obama will likely win the election, but the Bradley effect has me wondering if this race will actually end up being closer than everyone thinks. In New Hampshire during the primaries, Obama was polling way ahead of Hillary even up til the day of the primary...and then Hillary won. Evidence of the Bradley effect? Maybe. Polling is also only as good as the assumptions behind it and I think the numbers for young/first time voters and African Americans turning out are unrealistically high. Voting is habitual and there is a reason that historically these groups do not turn out in large numbers. Indeed, I know quite a few young people who are ardent supporters of Obama, but missed the voting registration deadline. Guess who won't be voting? I would be surprised (but not shocked) if turnout numbers for these groups end up as high as some people are predicting. These groups not turning out can only hurt Obama.
In addition to the Bradley effect, I wonder if Obama will suffer from the front runner effect. People are taking for granted that this election is already over to the point that I think it will negatively affect turnout. The less important people view their individual vote as being, the less likely they are to turnout (yes, I largely buy into the fundamental logic of Downs' "Economic Theory of Democracy").
Anyways, I think it's probably safe to say that Obama will be elected. However, I think this election may not be the Nixon/McGovern style blowout that people are predicting.
No comments:
Post a Comment