Thursday, November 29, 2007

The Affect Effect

Just got a copy of The Affect Effect, a book about affect and it's role in political behavior.  Most people who know me as a budding political scientist know that when it comes to political science, I am interested primarily in political behavior, rather than the political institutions we have created.  More specifically, I'm interested in voting behavior: How and why do people make the decision to vote or not to vote?  How do people decide who to vote for?   Are these processes rationally driven?  If not, what are the normative implications of their decision processes?



Affect is our gut reaction to something, either positive or negative.  What causes affect and how it influences our decision-making processes are questions that I personally find very interesting.  Responding to affect isn't always logical or rational and sometimes people aren't even aware that they are doing it.  As a result, it can be a tricky thing to empirically study. 



Anyways, I plan to read the book when I'm done with school in a few weeks during my month long hiatus from things academic dominating my time (along with a whole shelf-full of other books that I need to get to).  I'll post a review, but I'm guessing it's going to be a good book.  I love stuff that looks at decision-making, either from an affective or rational perspective (one of my favorite pieces of work in all of social science is Kahneman and Tversky's work on prospect theoryRead their original 1979 piece: "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" here). 



One of the best blog posts I've read in awhile

Read this! (from Overcoming Bias)



I'm tagging this with a poker tag because eventhough it's not explicitly about poker, it is about decision theory which is always applicable to poker.  Political science tag because decision theory is also blatantly related to polisci (especially in the rational choice literature...regardless of your opinion of RCT, in polisci we are concerned with understanding and predicting how people behave politically speaking, so obviously decision theory is relevant).  Religion tag because I love his characterization of his path to atheism.  It mimics my own (side bar: Maybe people interested in promoting religion should stop giving such vapid answers to children who obviously are deep thinkers and in asking "why" want a real answer, not one that betrays a lack of understanding of the topic at hand). 



Memorial/Fundraiser for Kevin

I told one of Kevin's fraternity brothers that I would pass along info about a memorial service/fundraiser for Kevin's family that the fraternity is doing.  It's going to be at the GW Lambda Chi Alpha house on 12/12 at 7pm.  I have class that night, so I don't know if I'm going to be able to make it, but I wanted to spread the word, especially to all the former SA hack types...



I first met Kevin when I got involved with the Student Association my sophomore year in college.  Kevin was Parliamentarian (aka chief rules and procedures guy) my first year on the Senate.  The year I ran for SA Executive Vice President he was on the elections committee and often served as the voice of reason.  Kevin was good people; the kind of guy you could ask the world of and he would do it for you.  I remember a bunch of good times in college with Kevin...going to a Dave Matthews concert at Nissan Pavilion, hanging out with other members of FOCK, all the SA stuff, hanging out at the Lion... 



I don't really believe in an afterlife, but Kevin did a lot of good things while he was on this earth, and will definitely be remembered by many.



Sunday, November 25, 2007

King Tut and my birthday

Just passing through Philly on the train on my way home from Thanksgiving in Connecticut.  One of the best things about taking the train is that I can get some work done.  I just finished up my state and local notes for the week and decided to take a break before jumping back into more work.



One of the many blogs I have in my google feed reader is the Wired Science blogThey have a post today about how November 26th was the day in 1922 that King Tut's tomb was discovered...pretty cool.



Also, I don't know how many people I went to college with read this blog, but I just found out from Christian Berle that Kevin Burkett died on Thursday.  RIP, friend.  :(



Saturday, November 24, 2007

Felt Burn - aka Holy Two-outers, Batman!

I was recently trying to convince my mom that poker is a game of skill.  However, given the way I've been running the past 24 hours, that might be increasingly difficult.



I played a lot of poker in the past 24 hours.  I would guesstimate probably 16 out of the past 24 were spent at the table.  During that time I did not get many big hands; I was actually pretty card dead.  Sadly, the majority of the big hands I did get ended up with me shipping it when some stupid card hit that massively saved my opponent.  I guess it's a win that I did not lose more than I did given the fact that I was card dead and running bad, but that is not much consolation.  I guess it also reaffirms my faith in the fact that Foxwoods is the free money store, but again...little consolation.



Hand 1:  I have about $200.  Get dealt 9d7d which is the best hand I have seen in quite awhile (I had been seeing variations on a theme of K2, Q3, J5, etc.).  Better yet, I have position.  I pray to hit the shit out of the flop...and I do, though not in the way expected.  Flop comes 7x7s9s.  Preflop there had been a $12 raise called multiple ways so the pot is already pretty big (standard mo at the Foxwoods 1/2 tables: someone will raise between $11-$15 preflop and get called by at least 4 people trying to suck out or not realizing how dominated they are...or what dominated even means).  Original raiser bets about $50....and gets raised...folds around to me...I shove.  Original raiser folds.  Re-raiser calls and flips over Ts8s.  I'm sure you can guess what happened next.  I don't even remember which end of the straight flush hit.  I just remember the dealer giving someone else the pot.



Hand 2: This was not a two outer, but it was me shipping it when I was pretty far ahead, so I'm including it.  I get dealt JdTd in middle position (I'm sensing a pattern with all these suited connectors/gappers)...  I have about $150 behind.  Again, there is some kind of raise called multiple ways...the pot has about $50 in it.  I flop a flush (don't remember the cards but they were all smaller than T).  I bet slightly less than pot...fold, fold, fold, fold.  Get called by the table calling station - big surprise.  Turn is a blank.  I push all in for my last ~$100.  Get called again.  At this point I am praying for no diamond.  River is a diamond.  Guy called me all the way down with Kd5c....not even the Ad!!!  Nice hand, sir...no wonder I've seen you buy into this table for about $1000.



Hand 3: The last hand I played at Foxwoods this trip.  7c3c on the button (yes, I played that for $2).  Have about $150 behind.  Limped family pot.  T73 rainbow on the flop.  Table lucksack bets out...I raise.  He calls.  Turn is a blank.  Check, bet, call.  Oh look, a shiny Ts on the river.  He checks to me and I just know he has a T.  I stupidly decide to push my last $70 or so out of frustration.  I certainly did not think he would fold if he had a T.  People can't even lay down TPTK at a casino, let alone trips.  He calls and turns over T9o.  Nice hand...and no, the turn did not give him any kind of straight draw.  He just played that good.



This sounds a little bitter and I suppose I am.  How do I run so bad?  Very frustrating.



Nature - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

As a fond mother, when the day is o’er,


Leads by the hand her little child to bed,


Half willing, half reluctant to be led,


And leave his broken playthings on the floor,



Still gazing at them through the open door,


Nor wholly reassured and comforted


By promises of others in their stead,


Which, though more splendid, may not please him more;



So nature deals with us, and takes away


Our playthings one by one, and by the hand


Leads us to rest so gently, that we go



Scarce knowing if we wish to go or stay,


Being too full of sleep to understand


How far the unknown transcends the what we know.



Friday, November 23, 2007

My Birthday Present

So my parents got me a new digital camera for my birthday.  I've been needing one for awhile since my old one was bulky and rather outdated.  They got me the Canon Powershot SD1000 Digital Elph and I'm in love with it.  Great pictures, great features and it's TINY.



Here are some pics I took playing around with it.



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My dad eating giblets (gross).



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View from the deck.



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the house...



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Sarah being obnoxious (status quo, LOL).



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The table all set for Tgiving dinner.



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The spread...