Attn: GVPT quantitative methods people

If you need a quant class to meet your 12 credits and you can't find anything past Maximum Likelihood Estimation in GVPT, let me highly, HIGHLY recommend EDMS 771 (especially if it is taught by Dr. Andre Rupp).  It is especially useful if you are a behaviorist. 

I'm taking this class this semester and it has me excited about stats again.  No tests, but we have homework sets every other week and short statistical critique essays on alternate weeks (which are actually fun to write - yes I know I'm a nerd).  Just like most GVPT classes (and MLE), we have a final research paper using a method we learned as well.  The class is taught in a very straightforward manner with powerpoints that are sent ahead every week and forced (but non-graded) practice work in class.  We have lab work in SPSS but he doesn't care if you use STATA or R.

I assume my last paper was a good one...

I've been sweating my contemporary theory grade all semester.  I got a B- on my first paper, which is the worst grade I've gotten on anything since undergrad and in grad school is considered failing.  I'd actually put a lot of time in on this paper, so I was somewhat upset.

Next paper, I put in considerably less time but managed to get an A-.  I don't know what I got on my third paper, but...

My grade just posted on testudo, and somehow I got an A- in the class.  Three cheers for me, I am very pleased.

I also found out that I got an A- on my last paper for my Survey class, so assuming I didn't tank the take home final (which I don't think I did), I have an A- in that class too.

Now just got to keep my fingers crossed for game theory.

Better late than never (election predictions)

Electoral College: Obama 311, McCain 227

Popular vote: Obama 54%, McCain 46% (I don't think any of the 3rd party candidates are gonna make it to 1%)

NBC/MSNBC first network to call at 12:01am, 11/5

Senate: Dems 56 (excluding Independents)
No predictions on the House, haven't been following any of those races...

Maryland Question 2 (slots): Pass
California Prop 8 (gay marriage ban): Fail
(These are both so close, my predictions here are probably more wishful thinking than anything else)

A lot of people I know have Obama doing better in the EC than me.  It's quite possible he could win Florida.  He also has a (lesser) chance in North Carolina.  I would be surprised if he won Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, or North Dakota, though I know these states are supposedly in play. 

I am in class til 9:30 tonight, but you can bet after that, I'll have my butt firmly planted in front of a tv somewhere.

I found a summer job (kinda)

My application for teaching in the summer got accepted, so I'll be teaching my own course in the second summer session (end of July-August).  The other exciting news is that it is a class I designed myself (based on a syllabus I had to do for a "Teaching Political Science class" that I took my first year).  It's a class on the bureaucracy, so I'm really excited since the classes I took in my MA program on bureaucracy and organization were some of my favorites.  The only downside is that it's going to be an online class, but the upside of that is that I don't have to be around campus to teach it.

I need to come up with a jazzy title, so suggestions are encouraged.  Here is the syllabus:

Bureaucratic Politics

 

Katie Baxter

Office: Tydings 5115

kbaxter@gvpt.umd.edu

           

Course Description:

When thinking about branches of American government, most people overlook a very important part of the executive branch: the bureaucracy.  In fact, the bureaucracy is an incredibly important part of government, responsible for regulating many aspects of our daily lives including television broadcasts, food safety, and environmental safety.  Furthermore, there is ongoing debate as to whether the bureaucracy is a democratic institution since it is often able to operate with limited interference from the President and Congress.  This course will examine the politics of the bureaucracy, starting with theories of bureaucratic organization, then moving on to the politics of bureaucratic control.  We will also examine bureaucratic dysfunction by looking at two case studies from recent events: September 11^th and Hurricane Katrina. 

 

Course Requirements:

Participation and attendance – 20%

Short response paper – 20%

Research paper – 50%

Presentation – 10%

 

All students should come to each class and be prepared to critically discuss the assigned readings.  While I expect everyone to come to class, merely showing up is not sufficient.

 

You are also required to write a short response paper at some point during the semester.  It should be 3 pages double-spaced and consist of your critical response to the readings we will be discussing that day in class (Did you agree or disagree with the authors? Is there something important that the authors did not consider?  How do the readings help us to understand the topic at hand?)  While the primary focus should be the readings for that class, it is acceptable to cite other relevant works. 

 

Lastly, you are required to write a research paper on one of the topics below.  If you wish to explore another topic, you must approve it with me in advance.  This paper should be 8-10 pages double spaced and will be due on the last day of class.  Sources should be documented in either APA or MLA style.  I have style guides available for your use if you have questions on source documentation.  On the last day of class, each person will have approximately 10 minutes to present their paper.

 

            Topic 1: Control of the Bureaucracy/Bureaucratic Discretion

To what extent does Congress and the President have control over the bureaucracy?  Do you agree with the congressional dominance literature or the bureaucratic discretion literature?  In terms of democratic theory does either perspective cause normative problems?  What are the potential solutions?

 

            Topic 2: Models of Organization

Which model of bureaucratic organization do you find the most satisfying:

Wilson

, Niskanen, Garbage can, some other model, or some combination of models?  Compare and contrast all potential models of organization and evaluate their pros and cons.

 

            Topic 3: Bureaucratic Dysfunction

What are the primary causes of bureaucratic dysfunction?  What are potential solutions, both procedural and cultural?  Discuss a few examples of bureaucratic dysfunction (e.g., FEMA and Hurricane Katrina, Intelligence agencies and 9/11. etc.) and how these situations might have been mitigated.

 

Required Text:

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How They Do It.  (

New York

: Basic Books).

 

I will also be providing articles and other readings listed below on ELMS (http://elms.umd.edu).

 

Accommodations for Students with Disabilities: If you have a disability and you are registered with Disability Support Services (DSS), please contact me as soon as possible so that we can discuss accommodations. A written request for accommodation is required. If you have questions about

University

of

Maryland

’s disability policies please contact DSS at (301) 314-7682.

 

Academic Integrity: You are expected to familiarize yourself with and follow the Code of Academic Integrity (http://studenthonorcouncil.umd.edu/code.html). Academic dishonesty is taken very seriously and will not be tolerated. 

 

General Course Outline: You are expected to have completed the assigned reading each week before coming to class.  I also reserve the right to change reading assignments as needed. 

 

Class 1:           Course introduction

Dye, Thomas.  Politics in

America

,

Ch.

12

 

Class 2:           Models of Organization

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 1-2.

March, James G., Michael D. Cohen, and Johan P. Olsen. 1972. “A Garbage Can

Model of Organizational Decision Making.” Administrative Science Quarterly 17(1): 1-25.

Niskanen, William.  1971.  “Bureaucracy.” 

Ch.

11

 

Class 3:           Bureaucrats as Operators

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 3-6.

 

Class 4:           Bureaucrat Managers

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 7-9.

 

Class 5:           Congressional Relations

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 13.

McCubbins, Mathew D. and Thomas Schwartz. 1984. “Congressional Oversight

Overlooked: Police Patrols versus Fire Alarms.” American Journal of Political Science, 28 (February): 165-179.

McNollgast.  1987.  “Administrative Procedures as Instruments of Political

Control.” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 3: 243-277.   

 

Class 6:           Presidential Relations

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 14.

Whittington, Keith E. and Daniel P. Carpenter. 2003. “Executive Power in

American Institutional Development” Perspectives on Politics 1 (September): 495-513.

                        Golden, Marissa.  1992.  “Exit, Voice, Loyalty, and Neglect: Bureaucratic

Responses to Presidential Control.”  Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 1: 29-62. 

 

Class 7:           Bureaucratic Discretion

Carpenter, Daniel P.  2001.  The Forging of Bureaucratic Autonomy:

Reputations, Networks, and Policy Innovation in Executive Agencies, 1862-1928.  Princeton:

Princeton

University

Press.  Ch. 1-2 and Conclusion.

           

Class 8:           Bureaucratic Executives

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 10-12.

 

Class 9:           Issue Networks and Iron Triangles

                        Heclo, Hugh.  1978.  “Issue Networks & the Executive Establishment.” 

pp. 429-439 in Richard J. Stillman, II. 1992, Public Administration  Concepts and Cases, Fifth Edition,

Boston

: Houghton Mifflin Company. 

                        Gais, et al.  1984.  “Interest Groups, Iron Triangles and Representative

Institutions in American National Government.”  British Journal of Political Science.  14: 161-185. 

 

Class 10:         Organizational Dysfunction, a Case Study – FEMA and Katrina

                        Morris, John C.  2006.  “Whither FEMA?  Hurricane Katrina and FEMA’s

Response to the

Gulf

Coast

.”  Public Works Management and Policy, 10: 284-294. 

                        Lipton, Eric.  2006.  “Despite Steps, Disaster Planning Still Shows Gaps.”  NYT

article available online

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/26/us/nationalspecial/26katrina.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5088&en=f7d953949a30b210&ex=1314244800&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

 

Class 11:         Organizational Dysfunction, a Case Study – 9/11

9/11 Commission Report Ch. 3 and 11, available online at http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf. 

 

Class 12:         Conclusions and paper presentations

                        FINAL PAPER DUE

Why I'm never betting on politics again...

Yesterday in my class we spent some time talking about the Bradley effect.  I simply jotted down: "Bradley effect: why I owe Pete $250."

Simply put, the Bradley effect is the premise that a significant number of voters will systematically lie in polls, saying that they plan to vote for a candidate of color, but when they actually go to the polls they vote for the white candidate.  There are several instances of polls showing a candidate of color leading by large margins in the polls, only to lose the election.  For those familiar with the race and politics literature, this fits in with all the stuff that focuses on how latent racism has generally replaced overt racism, since overt racism is not seen as socially acceptable anymore.

Almost a year ago I made a bet with Pete that Obama would not be the next President of the United States.  This was before Obama won any primaries...I banked on Hillary's people running a better campaign and the Bradley effect.  And McCain being the McCain of 2000 and not picking Sarah Palin.  Ah well.

I think Obama will likely win the election, but the Bradley effect has me wondering if this race will actually end up being closer than everyone thinks.  In New Hampshire during the primaries, Obama was polling way ahead of Hillary even up til the day of the primary...and then Hillary won.  Evidence of the Bradley effect?  Maybe.  Polling is also only as good as the assumptions behind it and I think the numbers for young/first time voters and African Americans turning out are unrealistically high.  Voting is habitual and there is a reason that historically these groups do not turn out in large numbers.  Indeed, I know quite a few young people who are ardent supporters of Obama, but missed the voting registration deadline.  Guess who won't be voting?  I would be surprised (but not shocked) if turnout numbers for these groups end up as high as some people are predicting.  These groups not turning out can only hurt Obama.

In addition to the Bradley effect, I wonder if Obama will suffer from the front runner effect.  People are taking for granted that this election is already over to the point that I think it will negatively affect turnout.  The less important people view their individual vote as being, the less likely they are to turnout (yes, I largely buy into the fundamental logic of Downs' "Economic Theory of Democracy"). 

Anyways, I think it's probably safe to say that Obama will be elected.  However, I think this election may not be the Nixon/McGovern style blowout that people are predicting.

Nerd term of the day: selection bias

What happens when we get unexpected results from the data we have?  If we are just relying on memory, or if our sampling procedure was bad, perhaps it is faulty data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

From Wikipedia:

Selection bias is a distortion of evidence or data that arises from the way that the data are collected. It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The term selection bias most often refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis, due to the method of collecting samples. If the selection
bias is not taken into account then any conclusions drawn may be wrong.

See also: cognitive dissonance.

Return of FOMF (over the summer)

The GVPTers are a rowdy bunch.  When we play ultimate frisbee, you better watch out - it's serious.  Benli just sent out an email saying FOMF (that's Frisbee on the Mall Fridays) is gonna continue over summer break.  Be there or be square - McKeldin Mall in front of Tydings at 5pm.

Students and grade inflation

Finished my grading yesterday and was wondering if I was too easy on my kids.  I didn't give out a single C, though I did give out a few grades lower than that.  Everyone else got an A or a B... and yet today I have had more than a few email exchanges with people unhappy with their grades.

Last semester I had a much more normally distributed range and did not get a single complaint.  ???

I dunno, maybe it is a good thing kids care about their grades, but I don't think I ever once complained about a grade I got in college...certainly not one in the A or B range.

Important Statistical Information

My friend from school Steve just sent me this hilarious email.  Warning: nerd jokes ahead.

Here are some graphical presentations that will no doubt come in handy in our future careers teaching undergrads.

Steve

 

Some political humour

Hat tip to Melissa.

SNL 2008 Fringe Candidates Debate | Funny Jokes at JibJab

Hooray!

We just got our funding assignments for next year this afternoon.  Fortunately I will not be subjected to another semester of TA-ing Intro to American Government (filled with freshmen, non-majors, and people who generally do not want to be there).  I'm going to be TAing an upper-level, all major, class just on the Presidency.  It was my third choice (my top two choices - methods classes - went to people the cohort ahead of me, so no big surprise), but like I said, I'm going to be a lot happier TAing this class as opposed to 170.  I really like the prof too.

Phrase of the Day: Cognitive Dissonance

Click here to read an explanation.  Basically it is the idea that people will try to avoid information that conflicts with their perception of reality because it is dissonant to their worldview and makes them unhappy.

Political science uses a lot of stuff from the other social sciences: psychology, economics, and sociology.  Cognitive dissonance has been coming up a lot in discussions about voting behavior in my participation class.

Overheard in the GVPT grad lab

Dan is sitting in the lab doing calc homework.

Jesse: Wow, Dan's a nerd.
me: We're all nerds - we're in a Ph.D. program.
Jesse: I am not a nerd.  Everytime I see someone do a partial derivative, a little piece of me dies.
Dan: I can't feel anything anymore.

Overheard in the GVPT gradlab

Me: I hate anal undergrads.  Is there anything worse?

Chris: What is it called when there are animals inside you, eating you?

Shanthi; You mean parasites?

Chris: Yeah, parasites.

My students have a paper due on Thursday this week.  On the assignment sheet I accidentally typed "Thursday, 4/9" (right day, wrong date) and have been getting a lot of questions back about it.  One of my students then actually wrote back: "You said it is due Thursday, but that is kind of ambiguous.  Could you
please type back to me the full due date, including day, date, and time."  FTR, I wrote back: "Thursday, April 10, 2008 by 11:59:59 pm EDT."

Overheard in the GVPT grad lab

Summer: (talking to Rabih) You look like an academi-hipster.
Me: Wow, those are few and far between.
Jesse: You have a Dylan-esque thing going on today.
Rabih: Which Dylan?
Alex: Bob.
Summer: I was thinking Jacob.
Benli: Dylan Thomas.
Jesse: Actually, I meant Dylan from 90210.  (much laughter)
Rabih: And here I thought I was among friends.

Fall 2008 schedule

Well, I'm definitely not going to ICPSR at Michigan this summer for stats classes.  They run two sessions, and the only one of any use to me in terms of classes they are offering is the latter one.  Unfortunately, this session ends 5 days before the American politics comprehensive exam (my primary field exam) that I am taking in August.  On top of ICPSR eating into my time for comp studying this summer, I cannot imagine having to deal with the logistics of finals, moving out of a sublet apartment, driving back home, etc., etc. right before comps.  The exam is a 36 hour take home exam...and even the saner older students who have taken it tell stories of not eating, sleeping, or showering for the entire 36 hours...and then needing at least a week of doing nothing before they feel human again.  The comp I had to take for my MA was closed book and 7 hours in a computer lab.  I am not sure that open book for 36 hours is a better (or less stressful) system.

But I digress...

Since I am not going to ICPSR, I'm gong to have to load up on methods classes this fall.  The plan is to take my second field comp (aka my methods comp) in January 2009, but it might be pushed back to next August.  I need to take at least three more methods classes between now and that comp.

Just registered for classes the other day and here is what my Fall schedule looks like so far:

Monday: nothing

Tuesday: 3:00-5:40pm SURV 632 - Social and Cognitive Foundations of Survey Measurement:
Major sources of survey error-such as reporting errors and nonresponse
bias-from the perspective of social and cognitive psychology and
related disciplines. Topics: psychology of memory and its bearing on
classical survey issues (e.g., underreporting and telescoping); models
of language use and their implications for the interpretation and
misinterpretation of survey questions; and studies of attitudes,
attitude change, and their possible application to increasing response
rates and improving the measurement of opinions. Theories and findings
from the social and behavioral sciences will be explored.   

6:30-9:30pm GVPT 743 - Contemporary political theory:
Theorists from Nietzsche (1884-1900) to the present will be covered
with a focus on the apparent failure of the Enlightenment to usher in
an age of peace and reason.
 This is a requirement that I have been putting off forever.  I don't really enjoy theory classes at all, but at least I don't have to take ancient.  I read way too much Plato as an undergrad.  I actually enoyed the Nietzsche and more modern stuff I was exposed to in college, so hopefully this won't be that bad.  Class until 9:30 at night might be interesting though. 

Wednesday: nothing

Thursday: 4:15 - 7:00pm EDMS 657 Factor Analysis:
Development of models for factor analysis and their practical
applications. Treatment of factor extraction, rotation, second-order
factor analysis, and factor scores. Introduction to linear structural
relations models.

Friday: probably TA-ing.  There is a survey design course I would also like to take but it's Friday from 1-4 which will likely conflict with work.  If it doesn't, I'll drop the factor analysis class and take that one instead.

Bonus: my earliest class looks like it starts at 3pm.  :)

Overheard in GVPT 170 lecture

Dr McIntosh: How many of you have ever watched Congressional debates on CSPAN?

*About 5 students in a lecture hall of 500 raise their hand.  I am the only TA out of 5 that does.  Melissa looks at me and laughs.

Dr. McIntosh: Well apparently we have some nerds in this class.

Schuessler's Logic of Expressive Choice

Been awhile since I've done a book review on here.  I love to read.  I used to plow through a book or two a week.  However, since I've been in school and have approximately 1000 pages of reading per week of political science stuff to get through, not to mention the written analyses of those readings that I have to write, I haven't been reading as much "for fun" as I used to, and most people that read this blog are probably not interested in the readings I have to do for school.

Anyways, I'm taking a class on voting behavior this semester.  It's the topic I hope to write my dissertation on, and I really like the professor and the other people in the class (it's a class of 7, including me).  I have already read many of the canonical books in this area, so I am glad that the professor is exposing me to other works I was not previously familiar with.

Today's class focuses on rational choice.  I don't really need to go into detail about what rational choice is because those reading this in the field have an intimate understanding of it (unless they have been living under a rock - it is one of the most dominant yet controversial theories in our field in the past 20 years...what Kuhn would refer to as a paradigm shift) and those not in the field probably don't care to know that much about it.  Suffice it to say that it is generally the borrowing of economic concepts such as cost, benefit, and utility to explain political behavior (in this case voter behavior).  According to the theory, voters make cost-benefit decisions that are rational based on their given preferences in determining whether to vote and for whom to vote.  There are problems with this theory empirically and theoretically, but it is also appealing in its parsimony.  It is certainly the most appealing to me out of any of the other theories I have been exposed to.

However, for today's class we were assigned a reading I had not yet read (or heard of): A Logic of Expressive Choice, by Alexander Schuessler.  This is the dissertation I wish I could have written.  He combines two of my all-time favorite political science books: two rational choice canons: Olson's Logic of Collective Action and Downs' Economic Theory of Democracy along with some of the more appealing parts of socio-psychological theories of vote choice.  His basic argument is that many people vote based on identity and that voting is an act of displaying one's identity much like making selections from a jukebox (that's why his theory is sometimes known as the jukebox theory of voting) or putting a bumpersticker on one's car. 

Anyways, if you are interested in this kind of stuff, I highly recommend his book.  I was surprised I have not been exposed to it yet.  It should definitely be on more syllabi.  And, as I noted in my reaction paper for today's class, it seems likely to me this theory could account for a lot of people's voting behavior in this year's election if Obama (or to a lesser extent Hillary) receives the Democratic nomination.

In Syracuse, where there aren't that many Democrats to begin with...

From Syracuse.com:

In the city of Syracuse, the strangest thing happened in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama received the exact same
number of votes, according to unofficial Board of Election results.

Clinton: 6,001.

Obama: 6,001.

"Wow, that is odd," said Jay Biba, Clinton's Central New York campaign coordinator. "I never heard of that in my life."

The
odds of Clinton and Obama tying were less than one in 1 million, said
Syracuse University mathematics Professor Hyune-Ju Kim.

"It's almost impossible," said Kim, who analyzed the statewide and citywide votes.

Lisa Daly, Obama's Syracuse campaign coordinator, said she thought a
mistake had been made when she was first told the tally by the Board of
Elections.

What are the chances of it happening?

"Good thing it wasn't a mayor's race," quipped Grant Reeher, a
political science professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of
Citizenship and Public Affairs.

A total of 12,346 votes were cast for Democrats in the city. Four
other Democrats also received votes: John Edwards, 114; Dennis
Kucinich, 113; Bill Richardson, 90; and Joe Biden, 27.

The tie is likely to be broken when elections officials recanvass
the voting machines and add in the absentee and affidavit votes.

But for now, it's all even.

Looks like Hillary hasn't kept up the same positive impression among CNY Democrats that she had years ago when she decided to carpetbag...

Juno, Waitress, and Religion and Politics

Went to see Juno last night at AFI.  Definitely a good movie - funny, but also touching, and Ellen Page does a really good job.  I'm sure she'll be in some other movies soon.  Also, I love Allison Janney and she was hilarious in this movie.  I highly recommend going to see it if you haven't already.  Oh - it also had a fabulous soundtrack with Belle and Sebastian on it.

After the movie we went to McGinty's and had a few beers.  We started talking about politics since CNN was on covering the Super Tuesday returns.  I told Keenan that I thought a McCain/Huckabee ticket was all but unstoppable...and that HRC probably has the best chance against them, but it would still be an uphill battle.  Somehow after that we all started talking about religion and our personal views on it...even Billy got in on the conversation after being largely quiet.  It's been a long time since I've had a real talk about religion with people and it was nice.

When I got home it was still pretty early - around midnight, so I decided to pop in one of the dvds I currently have from Netflix: Waitress.  This movie got really good reviews and I was looking forward to it, but in the end I didn't think it was that good of a movie.  Basically, Keri Russell plays a waitress who makes pies who is in an unhappy marriage and gets pregnant.  She starts having an affair with her doctor, and she has all kinds of inane conversations with the other waitresses at work.  Anyways, I thought it was overrated.  I wonder if I would have liked it more if I hadn't seen it immediately after Juno.  Whereas Juno was a movie that was about strong and empowered women, Waitress seemed to me to have a lot of codependent female characters...even the ending which I think is supposed to be the strong female ending did not seem to be that way to me.