Thursday, December 6, 2007

On being the first

Warning.  Deep thoughts ahead. 



I have always been a loner.  In elementary school I think some people thought something was wrong with me because I liked to just sit and look out the window like a cat for long periods of time.  Really I just like to think, and quietly sitting somewhere is conducive to that.  Even today, people frequently think I'm upset when in reality I'm just thinking.  My quietness and the need to be alone is also often misinterpreted by people as standoffishness or disinterest.  Not so - I just need some alone time to maintain my mental health.  I have always been contemplative.



Up until my freshman year of college, this side of me bothered me a lot.  In school the focus always seemed to be on fitting in and I definitely was different.  I had plenty of friends and I liked hanging out with them, but my difference really bothered me.  None of my friends just liked to sit quietly by themselves or to be alone for any length of time. 



My freshman year of college was really a life-changing year in a lot of ways.  One of the many was when I realized that in life, really EVERYONE is alone*.  I was sitting in the lounge on our floor at some wee hour of the morning discussing life with some of the guys on the floor.  Somehow we started talking about this and one of them said that everyone is really alone in life.  When it comes down to it, the only person you can ever really count on is you.  We go through life and we have friends and family we can count on, yes, but ultimately we are all traveling through life alone.  At the end of the day, you and you alone have to make peace with yourself. 



At first I fought him because this realization was really disturbing to me, but over time I came to embrace it and agree with him in his analysis.  Now, I actually find it kind of empowering.  I've made it through some bad situations thanks to my own personal strength.  I've certainly had support from others (and I am very thankful for that).  But ultimately decisions about life have to come from within.  E.g., you cannot force an addict to quit their addiction unless they themselves make the choice to.  It's the same with life.  In tough times we have others who help us get through, but ultimately, getting through it has to be a conscious choice of our own.



As someone who is very introspective, I frequently find myself relying on others to provide a reality check.  Do the thoughts I've been turning over in my head make sense on their face?  What about people who have gone through similar situations?  Can they relate to how I am feeling?  I have the brain of a scientist (researcher, analyzer, etc.), so I like to seek out multiple data points to confirm my own feelings.



And that is the downside of being the first among your friends to go through a lot of life events.  For better or worse, I have been the first among my friends to go through many life changes (though not having kids).  That makes it hard when you want to get advice from someone you trust that has experience in what you are going through. 



* I don't believe in God.  I suppose people who are believers would say that you are not alone because you have God.  However, the person who originally brought this up is a pretty religious person.



Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Prospect theory and poker

Remember last week when I posted a comment about prospect theory?  You might not have read the link to the journal article that I posted.  You might have even given up on the link to the Wikipedia entry explaining the basics.  However, I just read a post by Gary Carson on one of his blogs about enticing calls and was immediately reminded of my favorite scholars, Tversky and Kahneman, so I thought I'd give another go at explaining how this is related to poker.



Gary Carson writes:

I don't know why this works, but it does.

In a 1/2 game I limped UTG with KK. The limp left me with a stack of $125. Another early position player made it $15 and two players called. The raiser had another $75, the other two each had a couple hundred. I made a huge overbet, moving all in.

The initial raiser went into the tank and gave me his best imitation of a TV staredown.

Then I said the magic words. "Can you beat two jacks?"

Somewhat taken aback, he said, "Maybe".

I said, "Well, then you know what to do".

He called. One of the other two called, the other folded.

I turned my hand over, the board got dealt, they both mucked.

I don't know why causing them to focus their thoughts on a pair of jacks makes them call, but it does.

I have some thoughts about what the reason might be though.

When they mention a pair of jacks they'll tend to think about your hand as it relates to jacks, not as it relates all the other information they might have. They'll tend to think, "He might have jacks, he might have overcards to jacks, he might have a pair smaller than jacks and he might have a pair bigger than jacks. But he's thinking about jacks, so he probably doesn't have a bigger pair, he probably has TT and my KQ is a coin toss".

I don't really know though. But it works.

T+K's prospect theory (a nobel prize winning theory, btw) basically says that people's decisions in terms of risk are dependent on how their choices are presented.  They have proven this repeatedly with various experiments.  For example, someone might drive across town to save $5 on a $15 book, but would not drive across town to save $5 on a $1500 piece of jewelry.  Rationally, this does not really make any sense... $5 is still $5.  The expected value is the same.



Another way to see how this is explicitly related to gambling:



One of T+K's experiments told people to assume there was disease affecting 600 people and they had two choices:



Choice A: 200 of the 600 people will be saved.
Choice B: There is 33% chance that all 600 people will be saved, and 66% chance that nobody will be saved.



72% of people chose A, showing a preference for certainty.



They then offered another choice:



Choice C: 400 people will die.
Choice D: There is a 33% chance that nobody will die, and 66% chance that all 600 people will die.



78% of the same people then chose D, seeking to avoid the loss of 400 people.



You might notice however that the outcome of all four choices has the same expected value: 200 will be saved, 400 will perish. The only difference is the way in which the information is presented. 



Prospect theory shows us that if we want people to choose something, we should focus on potential gain.  If we want them to reject something, we should focus on the potential loss.  Whether this is something that can be successfully employed at the poker table remains to be seen, but Carson's story about the jacks is clearly a case of trying to get people to focus on the potential gain and having it pay off when they make a bad choice.



SNOW SUCKS

Actually, it's not the snow's fault...it's the fault of the drivers around here.



I had a 9am meeting on campus...left the house at 8, figuring hey the roads are not bad at all and it only takes me 20 minutes to get to campus...



2 hours later I park in Lot 1...only to find out that the people I was supposed to meet with are still stuck in traffic.  Oh well.  I have another meeting at 11:30 and plenty of work to do.



Before I even got to Beltsville this morning I had already seen 5 accidents.



Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Rediscovering music: TMBG

Way back in the 90's I went to a They Might Be Giants show at the 9:30 club with some friends (there's some real good stories that came out of that night, but that's another story for another blog post).  I was tagging along; completely unfamiliar with the band.  But my friend who told me that I would like them was right - their music cracked me up.



People who know me probably know that my ringtone on my phone has been TMBG's "Birdhouse in Your Soul" forever.  It's one of my favorite songs by them - a song about a freaking night light.  It is perhaps second only to "James K. Polk." 



Anyways, I have not listened to TMBG in quite awhile.  They're not on my ipod for some reason and I can't find my cd.  However, I just went ahead and downloaded them onto my ipod and now I'm happily rocking out to "Birdhouse in Your Soul" whenever I want to, not just when someone calls me or texts me.



Monday, December 3, 2007

Repost: DCist Winter Beer Roundup

I love DCist (and actually, I am a regular reader of Londonist also, though doing so is kinda torturous at times because I miss that city so damned much).  Today they posted a review of different winter beers to be found around the city.  Time to organize a winter beer bar crawl, methinks.  I still need to try Brasserie Beck and this is as good excuse as any.





Also on an unrelated note, let me add number 986 to my list of things I will never understand: 

#986: People who honk their horn at you to move forward when traffic is not moving, there is less than one car length between you and the car in front of you, and you are not causing them to block an intersection.  WTF?



Sunday, December 2, 2007

Mummified Dinosaur

Every once in awhile I like to pretend that I am not a huge nerd.  I mean, I was in a sorority, I know lots of hip musicians the general public has never heard of, and I own >30 pairs of shoes.  But then something will catch my eye and I am reminded that, yes indeed, I am a nerd...



I caught this blog post on my feed reader and had one of those: "Wow this is so cool.  Oh my, I really am a nerd" moments tonight.  But, it really is cool, so check it out.  Dinosaur mummy found.



My birthday

Went out to Mon Ami Gabi and then to the 4P's and a good time was (hopefully) had by all.  I definitely had a good time...how can you have a bad time when your friends are buying you dinner and alcohol?  It was also kinda funny to see my school friends and the degenerates hang out together.



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Ozan, E, and Travis



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me and Ozan

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Some of the grad school crew at the 4P's



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degenerates



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I don't even know how to describe this picture



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Keenan and Billy making it rain...why does this always end up happening at people's birthday parties?



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The end of the night...Billy giving me a foot massage.  It pays to be the bday girl.